Summary
In this episode of StarTalk, host Neil deGrasse Tyson interviews Dr. Irwin Redlener, the director of Columbia University's National Center for Disaster Preparedness, about the current state of the coronavirus pandemic. They discuss the criteria for declaring a pandemic, the importance of physical distancing, and the challenges of modeling the spread of the virus. Dr. Redlener explains that it is expected that 50-65% of the US population will contract the virus, with 10-15% needing hospitalization and 5% requiring a mechanical ventilator. However, the modeling of the virus has been complicated by the uncertainty of input parameters, such as the average number of people that would contract the virus from one infected person.
Dr. Redlener also discusses the possibility of multiple waves of the coronavirus pandemic and the need for physical distancing and sheltering in place until an effective vaccine is developed, which could take up to a year and a half. He emphasizes the importance of balancing the desire to restart businesses with the need to control the spread of the virus and avoid a potential disaster.
The guest also notes the potential for mutations in the virus, making it difficult to find an effective vaccine, and the possibility of adding a coronavirus component to the annual flu shot. He discusses the issue of undercounting deaths associated with COVID-19 due to lack of testing and the deaths of people who do not have the virus but are affected by the pandemic.
Dr. Redlener's insights provide valuable information about the pandemic and its effects on the world. The hope is that this experience will lead to a new understanding of the need for global cooperation in solving planetary problems such as the climate crisis and biodiversity preservation.
